What kind of future Muskoka can we get?
By Peter Sale | August 22nd 2026
What kind of Muskoka do we want in the future? Sounds simple but it’s a blue-sky question that asks people to think expansively and with no constraints.
We could all agree we want a Muskoka where everyone is happy, healthy and wise, living in a natural paradise, with a totally green economy that is going gangbusters so more and more of us become unimaginably wealthy, while the loons continue to serenade us in the evenings.
Ain’t going to happen. Not in this universe.
Today I ask a different question: What is the best Muskoka that we can get in 2050? That’s a much more difficult question, but also a more realistic one — a collectively agreed upon answer becomes a tangible goal to strive for.
The present moment is special. It is the moment in which we exist, in the environment which is, and with the economy that also is. We reached this moment through a particular history, but we could have gotten here from many different pasts. And from this moment forward, we can reach many different futures depending on the path we follow.
Having a tangible future Muskoka as our goal will help us make better choices as we map out a path to get there.
The potential futures are constrained by reality. We know that more people will live in Muskoka, mostly through growth driven by immigration from elsewhere in Ontario. We cannot slow that growth except by limiting construction and raising the cost of housing. With affordability already a major problem, a deliberate policy to limit growth by raising costs is unlikely.
A recent demographic study projected our permanent population to grow 40 per cent to about 99,000 by 2050. Somewhere between 95,000 and 103,000 is a safe bet. The seasonal population will also grow but more slowly. Now about 81,500, by 2050 it will likely be 88,500. Our future Muskoka must accommodate all these people.
Realistic projections also show tourism increasing from about 4,000,000 visitors today to 5,400,000 in 2046. Our economy depends upon us continuing to cater to their needs as well.
Our future Muskoka is also going to be substantially warmer. Climate projections from Natural Resources Canada, based on established global climate models, show the average temperature in Bracebridge to have already increased about 2 C since 1950, and very likely to add a further 3 C by 2050 (an enormous change with many consequences).
If the global community makes major increases in the rate at which it reduces greenhouse gas emissions the world may warm a little less. However, it is unrealistic to assume climate change is finished, let alone that our weather will be “back to normal” over the next 20 years.
Let’s rephrase our question. What is the best Muskoka we can get in 2050, given that our population will be 40 per cent larger, we will be welcoming more than a million additional tourists, and our climate will be substantially different? If we value our iconic natural environment, and if that environment drives our tourism-based economy, the challenge of retaining that environment is a whole lot more difficult than it would have been 20 or 30 years ago.
We must start now to plan how to accommodate the larger population and greater number of tourists in ways that at minimum do not impinge more than we already do on the environment’s capacity to cope with other stresses it faces. That requires less environmental impact per person than is now the case. We also must plan for the additional infrastructure — the homes, shops, restaurants, roads, and parking lots, plus electricity, water, sewage and internet services — to be built with minimal carbon footprints and located so amenities like natural landscapes and views are preserved.
We have big challenges before us. Help MWC build the collaborative watershed management plan needed if we are to meet those challenges and reach our goal.
This article was first published by MuskokaRegion.com.
Peter Sale
This is article No. 33 in the current series, Nurturing Our Watersheds, from Muskoka Watershed Council. Its author, and editor of the series, is Peter Sale, aquatic environmental scientist, Muskoka resident, and director and a former chair of Muskoka Watershed Council.